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20-11-2011 | Diabetes | Article

Global diabetes prevalence expected to rise by 50% by 2030

Abstract

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MedWire News: Global estimates by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) show that the diabetes epidemic is continuing to grow, with worldwide prevalence of diabetes likely to increase by 50.7% by 2030.

The IDF has estimated the prevalence of diabetes every 3 years from the year 2000 and the latest report, published in Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, updates the IDF estimates for 216 countries and territories, explain David Whiting (IDF, Brussels, Belgium) and colleagues.

The projections are the result of an analysis of 170 data sources from 110 countries that were published between January 1980 and April 2011.

According to the report, the number of people with diabetes is expected to rise from 366 million in 2011 to 552 million by 2030.

"The overall total predicted increase in numbers with diabetes from 2011 to 2030 is 50.7%, at an average annual growth of 2.7%, which is 1.7 times the annual growth of the total world population," report the researchers.

The authors say the largest proportional increase in diabetes numbers is expected in Africa, followed by the Middle East and North Africa.

Western Pacific countries though will continue to have the world's highest number of adults with diabetes, due primarily to the high rates of diabetes in China, they say.

The rate of the increase in diabetes burden is inversely related to income status, say the researchers. Diabetes prevalence is expected to rise over the next 19 years by 92% in low-income countries, 57% in lower-middle-income countries, 46% in upper-middle-income countries, and 25% in higher-income countries, reports the team.

"Ageing and the changes that are associated with urbanization, globalization, and development are increasingly adding to the burden of diabetes in all countries, and particularly in low and middle-income countries where resources for dealing with the associated clinical problems are most scarce," write Whiting et al.

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By Sally Robertson