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17-06-2010 | Cardiometabolic | Article

Non-HDL cholesterol better than total cholesterol at predicting Japanese AMI


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MedWire News: The risk for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Japanese individuals can be more reliably predicted from serum levels of non-high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol than total cholesterol, researchers report.

Neither lipid measure was able to predict stroke, but the team was able to construct a scoring system to predict the 5-year probability of developing AMI based on their data.

The findings come from an analysis of the Japan Arteriosclerosis Longitudinal Study-Existing Cohorts Combine (JALS-ECC), a project that pooled data from 21 cohort studies in Japan.

Specifically, Naohito Tanabe (Niigata University Gradual School of Medical and Dental Sciences) and colleagues studied information on 22,430 Japanese men and women, aged 40 to 89 years, without a history of cardiovascular events from 10 community-based cohorts.

During an average follow-up of 7.6-years, 104 individuals experienced AMI and 339 had strokes.

Serum non-HDL cholesterol was more strongly associated with AMI risk in a dose-response manner than was serum total cholesterol.

The multivariable incident rate ratio for the highest versus lowest quartile of serum total cholesterol was 3.32 for men, 9.78 for women, and 3.63 for the two combined. For serum non-HDL cholesterol, the corresponding figures were 3.87, 8.55, and 4.22.

Scoring systems were constructed based on multivariable Poisson regression models for predicting a 5-year probability of developing AMI.

The non-HDL cholesterol model was found to have a better predictive ability than the total cholesterol model, with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.825 versus 0.815.

The researchers conclude in the Circulation Journal: “Our scoring systems can be useful tools to assess an individual’s risk of developing AMI by measuring serum total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol levels for Japanese and probably Asian populations.”

MedWire ( is an independent clinical news service provided by Current Medicine Group, a trading division of Springer Healthcare Limited. © Springer Healthcare Ltd; 2010

By Anita Wilkinson